The job search is a casino

In the same way you need to have luck on your side to hit the jackpot, this is a critical element of the job search.

You don’t hear about how luck plays a factor in the search, well because you can’t promote services to solve for luck, BUT you can try to improve your odds.

Here are 4 ways finding a job is like entering a casino.

1. It’s designed for the house to win (companies).

2. Luck is a very significant factor

3. Knowing how to play the game can help, but most is still out of your control

4. Focusing on how you can improve your odds is how you make money.

Point number 4 is the one that is most important here. Let’s dive into how you can actually do that with real life examples.

Improving your odds

Point blank, the job search is successful when you can shift the odds in your favor. I’d argue that the best recruiters are essentially great at making bets.

They can assess a candidates overall profile, and benchmark that against what the hiring team is looking for.

They are making educated guesses (bets) based on a few things when deciding to reach out.

What are the odds this person will have the right experience based on resume?

What are the odds this role will match with the persons career goals?

What are the odds this candidate falls out throughout the process?

What are the odds I’m missing risk factors on this profile?

What are the odds the hiring manager will be interested in this profile?

All of those are questions that will go through a recruiters head, over time assessing those signals becomes quicker and quicker.

You need to understand the questions your audience is asking when making their bets on you being a fit, in order to improve your odds.

How candidates improve their odds

Crafting an intentional foundational resume: You should build your resume with a specific job family, function and industry in mind. Let’s say there are two software engineering candidates applying for a banking position. One uses a general resume for every application. They don’t have banking industry experience, but meet all of the other requirements.

The other candidate meets all of the requirements as well. But they also have experience in the banking industry.

Banking industry candidate has better odds of getting contacted about the role because the recruiter will believe it is a safer bet that they have the right experience.

The other candidate might get called, but it is a less sure bet.

So, you have the option to improve your odds if your resume and applications are focused on a specific industry. That will improve odds.

Applying early: Yeah I know what you’re saying. “Connor we have heard this to the point of me wanting to reply to this email and verbally assault you, you pseudo genius" and I get it, not insightful at surface level, but bare with me.

Role gets posted, and within the first 5 days any decent recruiter is monitoring to understand the candidate flow they are getting to see if they need to source or explore other options. That is part of the magic on getting in early, there is more focus on applications.

But the math of getting in early is where your odds get improved. Specifically in this market.

Let’s say a role has been posted for 2 weeks by the time you applied. There are 200 applicants at this point. 25% of them actually meet the job requirements.

That comes out to 50 potentially qualified candidates. Let’s say 10 of those 50 look ideal on paper. Industry experience, similar work, yada yada.

The recruiter has likely started interviewing those 10 at this point. Let’s say they have a 50% recruiter interview to hiring manager interview ratio. They finish those 10 interviews, 5 are going to next stages. Even if the hiring manager doesn't like all of the candidates, or some candidates fall out, the odds of netting at least 1 viable candidate are pretty high.

But most hiring teams like to have at least a few candidates to interview (Not a fan but a different topic and is the common preference)

So let’s shift this to you applied within the first week of a role being open.

It has 100 applicants. Same 25% qualified applicant ratio. 25 candidates. Using the same estimate that 20% of those qualified candidates look like an ideal fit on paper, that’s only 5 candidates.

Assuming the same 50% ratio moving to next stages, that’s only 2 making it to hiring manager screen (rounding down since you can’t have half a candidate)

Is there potential that hiring manager loves both? Possibly, but lower odds than you’d think.

Your odds of competing with 2 candidates (33%) is much better than your odds of competing with 5 candidates (16.7%)

There’s also the potential that those candidates have other interviews in motion, and could fall out during the process.

Or they make it to panels and aren’t a fit.

So not only are you’re odds better of making it through to the next rounds when applying early, the odds of the recruiter continuing to asses applications early on is greater.

Let’s say the hiring team usually has 3 candidates do final interviews for 1 offer.

The odds of them continuing to screen candidates is much more likely when they only have 2 candidates in motion than compared with 5.

Networking and being referred.

This is tried and true method of improving your odds, but there’s a key way to do it.

The easiest way for your network to improve your odds of going from interested to offer is when it looks like this.

You are being referred by someone internally in the organization.

That person works closely or directly with the team that this role will be a part of.

That person can speak directly to your professional ability and is respected internally within the organization.

Why? Because them being able to provide context on professional fit, improves the odds the that the ‘bet’ of you being a fit will workout throughout the process.

This is the type of referral that improves odds the most significantly. Hiring is always a gamble, but companies want to make as safe of a bet as possible.

Closing

In closing, the most successful way to job search is to focus on how you can improve your odds.

LinkedIn EasyApply with a generic resume is like slots. Yes, you can hit the jackpot but you need a lot of luck on your side, patience, and the cash to survive the bets that don’t hit.

Getting strategic with your search is more like Poker/Blackjack. Yes, luck is still a factor, but knowing how the odds stack up, how you can improve them, and the tactics/strategies to do so can make a difference.

So start searching in a way that shifts the odds to your favor.