New Year, New Job Market.

What you should know about the 2024 job market (and how to use it to your advantage)

We are all happy to leave 2023’s job market behind us. Between non-stop lay off announcements, 250,000 tech workers laid off, economic uncertainty, inflation and companies laying off over the holidays (looking at you Spotify), there isn’t much to miss. But, there’s a lot to be optimistic about for the 2024 job search.

These are the 3 key signals I am seeing in the job market, that are good news for anyone searching for a job. And how you can incorporate them to your job search strategy.

This is based on industry data and some anecdotal insights I am hearing about in these recruiting streets. Let’s tap in.

1. Companies’ Planning to Hire

Based on a recent Robert Half survey, 57% of companies are planning to hire full time roles. 9 times out of 10, the new year means new hiring and new jobs. Companies on a standard budgeting cycle have headcount approved and those overworked and understaffed teams are looking to get positions filled. While the data point from Robert Half isn’t ground breaking given the norm, there is an interesting factor. 66% of respondents cited company growth as the reason for hiring.

Here’s why that’s important. If one company is growing, their competitors probably are too. As they say, a rising tide rises all ships. This suggests that due to it being growth, companies could be competing for similar talent again. When they compete, companies move candidates through interviews more quickly, will loosen up on the ‘must have requirements’ and job seekers have more leverage in the process.

Here’s what the hiring projections look like:

Adding new positions being a significant representation of the plans is a huge plus. Combine this with the slow hiring of 2023, all of those understaffed teams will be itching for hiring to happen. Which is supported by the reduction of companies not planning to fill vacant positions.

Added insight is that I have seen and known A LOT of recruiters that got hired towards the end of 2023. Recruiters being hired, means that the company will be hiring sooner rather than later. Just like how recruiters/TA are often the first laid off, they are often the first hired.

2. Companies Need Retention Strategies (but don’t have them)

Cited in the article as well as a major need for companies. But, i’m betting we are a long shot away from this. Most companies think short term when it comes to hiring and headcount, especially when it’s related to retention.

So while they need retention strategies, they don’t have them. Unless you count a pizza party or company swag instead of bonuses, but i’d say that has an opposite effect on retention. But there’s an even bigger factor at play here, that will work in your favor if you’re looking for a new role.

With the new year and headcount being budget for, bonuses are also budgeted for. And while companies are planning on growth, they aren’t planning to grow those bonus pay outs at least according to a report of companies planning for smaller bonuses. I’m betting on this being accurate, I mean you barely hear of awesome bonuses when things are going well.

The amount of these reports are accelerating too. I have a hunch that as companies aim to decrease the average wage, their retention challenges will increase proportionally.

Companies are going to have more retention challenges than they are planning for. You’ll see this starting to play out in February/March of this year when people start making moves because of bad bonuses. Here are some reasons why I’m betting on companies having more renting challenges than they plan on.

• Employees who survived the layoffs of the past 18 months are burnout, overworked, and disengaged.

• Employees have been left to complete more work with less resources for the past 1.5 years without anything in return.

• Employees have been staying in jobs to ride out the storm, and will be itching for something new SOON.

Someone in my network just got their raise from a global employer who had publicly shared they had its best year on record. Their manager told them how they had to fight to get them this pay bump and really set the stage for a grandiose bump.

The raise was less than 3%. Not even break even with inflation. Yeah, they are looking.

A meaningless bonus (if any) will be the final nail in the coffin. They will make moves. Especially considering the fact that regardless of job market, you’ll get a bigger raise when landing a new job than a raise from your current employer. I am betting on a huge bump in advertised roles around February and March due to employees resigning.

This will increase the amount of jobs on the market. Good news for job seekers.

3. Economic Conditions

In the US, inflation has come down significantly. We are hovering around 3% for year over year numbers. Wall Street is planning on reduced rates coming in 2024. This all bodes well for increased hiring.

Whether explicit or not, much of the job market turbulence from the past year can be linked to rates rising. Companies cut costs (employees) since the cost of debt was increasing. They didn’t know how high rates would raise or for how long, creating significant uncertainty. With inflation reducing, so is uncertainty, which companies like. Companies prefer certainty. It makes planning easier.

December’s US job report was better than expected with more jobs being added than estimated. BUT, this wasn’t significant as it relates to the white collar job market. The job reports have also been revised down for Oct/November reports, so all of that should be taken with a grain of salt. Regardless, an important data point to keep watching.

This is significant in the hiring uptick I am betting we see.

How to Take Advantage of this as a Jobseeker

Be ready before it happens. The timeline I anticipate things picking up significant steam will be end of January. It will continue through February - April once resignations accelerate after bonus season. From there, it’s anyones guess. While I am pretty confident in this timeline, it isn’t 100%. (If it was I would be on Wall Street, not recruiting.

Here’s what to do.

1. Focus on your target companies and industries.

2. Have your LinkedIn built out so you can be found.

3. Keep up the applications through multiple channels.

4. Have your resume built out with accomplishments and impact.

5. Re-connect with your network to understand company hiring plans.

The foundational aspects of the job search will bear more fruits in 2024. The odds are shifting to your favor.

These are the biggest factors that will be changing how the 2024 job market looks from my POV.

How are you planning your job search strategy in 2024? I’d love to hear about it.